[SMM Analysis] Learning about Methanol-Hydrogen EVs from Geely Remote

I. Definition of Methanol-Hydrogen Electric Vehicles

Methanol-hydrogen electric vehicles (MHEVs) are a type of new energy vehicle (NEV) that utilizes methanol (CH₃OH) as a hydrogen carrier. Through an onboard methanol reforming system, methanol is converted into hydrogen, which is then used to power a fuel cell for electricity generation. Unlike traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), MHEVs eliminate the use of petroleum-based fuels. Compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), they effectively address range anxiety and charging challenges. In contrast to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) that rely on high-pressure hydrogen storage, MHEVs reduce the complexity of infrastructure development. This technological approach combines the ease of methanol storage and transportation with the efficiency and cleanliness of hydrogen fuel cells, opening up new possibilities in the field of hydrogen energy utilization.

II. Technical Principles

1. Methanol Reforming for Hydrogen Production
   Methanol undergoes a chemical reaction within a reformer, with the typical reaction formula being:
   CH₃OH + H₂O → 3H₂ + CO₂
   Through the use of selective catalysts (such as copper-based or precious metal catalysts), methanol reacts efficiently with water vapor at low temperatures (200-300°C) to produce hydrogen-rich gas. The challenge in this process lies in balancing the catalyst's activity, durability, and cost while avoiding the poisoning effect of by-products (such as carbon monoxide) on the fuel cell.

2. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Power Generation
   The generated hydrogen enters a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), where it undergoes an electrochemical reaction with oxygen:
   2H₂ + O₂ → 2H₂O + Electrical Energy
   At the anode, hydrogen dissociates into protons (H⁺) and electrons. The electrons flow through an external circuit to form an electric current, while the protons penetrate the electrolyte membrane and combine with oxygen at the cathode to produce water. The core efficiency of this system relies on the performance optimization of the membrane electrode assembly (MEA). Currently, the industry is achieving technological breakthroughs by reducing platinum usage (the platinum loading per single cell has decreased to 0.2-0.3 g/kW) and improving the durability of membrane materials.

III. Manufacturing Costs

(1) Current Status of Manufacturing Costs
Taking Geely's Yuancheng Xinghan H methanol-hydrogen heavy-duty truck as an example, the cost per unit is approximately 8%-12% higher than that of a comparable ICEV, primarily concentrated in the following areas:
• Reformer and Fuel Cell System: The current unit price of domestic methanol reforming units is around 150,000-200,000 yuan. The cost of hydrogen fuel cell stacks has decreased to 3,000-4,000 yuan/kW due to technological iterations (2023 data), but they still account for 25%-30% of the total cost.

• Insufficient Economies of Scale: The annual production capacity of methanol reforming systems for hydrogen production nationwide is less than 50,000 units, and the economies of scale have not yet been achieved, resulting in high procurement costs for parts.

• Material Dependence on Imports: High-performance catalysts (such as ruthenium-based catalysts) and high-end membrane electrode assemblies rely on imports, driving up overall costs.

(2) Prospects for Cost Reduction
• Accelerated Localization of Catalysts: It is expected that the cost of domestically produced copper-based catalysts will be reduced by 40% by 2025.

• Modular Production to Reduce System Integration Costs: The unit price of a single reforming device is expected to fall below 100,000 yuan.

• Scaled Production and Technological Advancements in Hydrogen Fuel Cells: Costs may decrease to 1,500 yuan/kW by 2025.

IV. Usage Costs

(1) Comparison of Fuel Costs
The average market price of methanol is approximately 3,000 yuan/mt (2024), while diesel is around 7,500 yuan/mt. The energy equivalent cost of methanol is 40%-50% of that of diesel.
• Heavy-Duty Truck Scenario: The methanol consumption per 100 kilometers is approximately 15-20 kg, while diesel consumption is about 35 liters, resulting in a difference of over 1 yuan per kilometer in fuel costs.

• Commercial Vehicle Economy: Assuming a daily mileage of 300 kilometers, the annual fuel cost difference can reach 80,000-100,000 yuan.

(2) Maintenance Cost Advantages
The methanol reforming system has a relatively simple structure, lacking high-pressure hydrogen storage tanks and complex thermal management systems, which extends the maintenance cycle by 30%. However, the fuel cell stack requires periodic replacement, with an estimated cost of 50,000-80,000 yuan over a 5-year life cycle.

V. Analysis of Technical Challenges

1. Low-Temperature Start-Up Challenges
   Existing methanol reforming systems experience a sharp decline in efficiency when the ambient temperature drops below -20°C, necessitating the additional installation of PTC heating modules, which increases energy consumption by approximately 15%. Geely has shortened the low-temperature start-up time to 10 minutes by optimizing the reformer pipeline insulation and intelligent temperature control strategies, but the bottleneck of reliable operation at -30°C still needs to be overcome.

2. System Durability Issues
   Under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, reforming catalysts are prone to sintering and carbon deposition, leading to activity decay. Test data shows that after 8,000 hours of continuous operation, the catalyst activity decreases by approximately 18%, necessitating the extension of catalyst lifespan through coating technology and precise control of reaction conditions.

3. Hydrogen Purity Assurance
   The hydrogen produced from methanol decomposition contains 30%-40% water, requiring an efficient drying module to ensure that the hydrogen purity entering the fuel cell exceeds 99.95%. Otherwise, it may cause membrane electrode icing or performance decay. Current water removal technologies result in an energy loss of approximately 8% in the system, indicating significant room for technological optimization.

VI. Geely Yuancheng's Operational Practices

(1) Progress in Commercialization
Geely Yuancheng's methanol-hydrogen electric vehicles have formed a product matrix of "heavy-duty trucks + light-duty trucks + buses," with nearly 1,000 units deployed in the market. Among them, the Yuancheng Xinghan H heavy-duty truck has achieved large-scale operations in the Ordos mining area and the Hebei logistics corridor, accumulating over 20 million kilometers of operational mileage and validating the technical reliability.

(2) Construction of Energy Supply Networks
Through collaborations with China Energy Investment Corporation and Baosteel Group, 27 methanol refueling stations have been established in methanol-rich regions such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi. A rapid methanol module replacement solution has also been developed, reducing the single fuel replenishment time to within 10 minutes and addressing the pain point of refueling efficiency.

(3) Highlights of Operational Data
Actual test data shows that the methanol conversion efficiency of Geely Yuancheng's heavy-duty trucks reaches 78%, with a curb weight 300 kg lighter than the diesel version. The annual operational mileage reaches 150,000 kilometers, and carbon emissions per unit turnover are reduced by 65%, successfully passing the certification of "Fuel Consumption Limits for Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicles."

VII. Prospects for Application Scenarios

1. Logistics Transportation Corridors
   Suitable for logistics routes with an annual transportation volume exceeding 100,000 mt, a regional green transportation artery can be constructed through a network of methanol refueling stations and an intelligent dispatching system. For example, the container transportation line from Shandong to the Yangtze River Delta can reduce annual fuel costs by 90,000 yuan per trip.

2. Mining Construction Scenarios
   In mining areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, methanol-hydrogen heavy-duty trucks can achieve "oil-to-electricity conversion." After daytime operations, they can utilize low electricity prices to electrolyze water for hydrogen production and storage, operating in a closed loop at night. The estimated annual carbon emission reduction is 1,500 tons.

3. Intercity Passenger Transport
   Modularly designed 35-seat intercity buses can meet the long-range needs of suburban areas while flexibly switching between hydrogen/methanol power modes through methanol refueling stations, addressing the challenges of dual-line construction for pure electric/hydrogen energy.

4. Emergency Power Supply
   The onboard methanol reforming + fuel cell system can be rapidly deployed to provide 50-200 kW-level mobile power generation support for disaster relief and field operations. It has already achieved 1 MW-level emergency power supply application verification in the Lvliang mining area of Shanxi.

Conclusion
Methanol-hydrogen electric vehicles are driving development with a "dual-engine" approach of "flexible hydrogen carrier + low-cost commercialization." Geely Yuancheng's practices demonstrate that through technological innovation and in-depth scenario exploration, this technological route has the potential to break through the bottlenecks of hydrogen energy promotion and achieve commercial closure in fields such as heavy-duty logistics and mining transportation. With the localization of catalysts, innovation in hydrogen storage materials, and increased policy support, methanol-hydrogen electric vehicles are expected to become one of the key carriers for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goals, reshaping the hydrogen energy industry ecosystem.